World Cup 2019: the 20 teams that can make the knockout phase

As we head into the final games of the first round, which teams are poised to make the knockout phase?

After two games each, nine teams have already qualified for the knockout phase including Australia's Group C leader, Italy, as well as tournament favourites USA, home side France, plus England, Germany, Netherlands, Canada, Japan and Sweden.

We take a look at how each team has fared compared with their FIFA ranking (in brackets) going into the tournament, and give a current ranking based on the two matches each so far ahead of the final game of the first round which gets underway on Tuesday morning (AEST).

The teams that qualify for the knockout phase are the two top placegetters from each group and the four top number three teams. In some groups, one win is enough to see teams progress as the number three team.

1. USA (1)

Still #1 after two games – albeit against relatively low-level opposition in Thailand (#34 heading into the tournament) and Chile (#39). In the final match of the first round they face Sweden (#9) in what is a dead rubber for both teams as both have qualified for the second stage. USA will not want to lose their deserved status as tournament favourites by dropping points in the group stage, but will they be ready for a tougher opponent in the knockout phases?

2. France (4)

Of course, France is set on making it a double from two World Cups – 2018 and 2019. They look pretty good and comfortable at home, and have qualified for the second stage. Their first round win against South Korea (#14) was impressive, but they were less so against Norway (#12). Their final group game is against Nigeria (#38) which is currently equal on points with Norway.

3. Germany (3)

They've won both games – against China (#16) and Spain (#13) – in a typically understated German fashion. Nothing spectacular but good enough to get the result. With South Africa (#49) to play in the final group game, they should progress comfortably and other teams should watch them if they manage to click into gear in the knockout stages.

4. Netherlands (8)

The Netherlands beat Australia comfortably in a warm-up match prior to the World Cup, and their two World Cup matches have looked equally comfortable for the European champions against New Zealand (#19) and Cameroon (#46). While they have qualified for the second stage, they next face Canada (#5) which has also qualified, with the match to decide the group winner.

5. Canada (5)

Canada is probably one of the more surprising sides of the tournament – although they shouldn't be considering their world ranking – having not conceded a goal in their two outings against Cameroon (#46) and New Zealand (#19). Like their fellow group leaders, Netherlands, they have qualified for the second stage so the next game will decide bragging rights as group leaders.

6. Australia (6)

Many will disagree with putting Australia so high after their first game loss to Italy (#15), but the dramatic (and controversial perhaps) come-from-behind win against Brazil (#10) was a victory that will be talked about long past this World Cup and probably long past the playing careers of the current crop of players. While we've heard a lot of Australia's troubles in defence, they have also not quite clicked upfront either but when they do, they will be a danger to most teams. Australia should win easily and big against Jamaica (#53) which will boost their already sky-high confidence further heading into the knockout phase.

7. England (3)

So far England look like an England team at a World Cup. Full of hope and potential but not quite ready yet. They managed to win comfortably enough against their northern neighbour Scotland (#20) but were less convincing against Argentina (#37), showing that they're lacking a cutting edge in front of goal. While they've qualifed for the next stage, they will need to improve significantly if they are going to emulate their men's team from last year's World Cup and make the semi-finals. Their final group game is against Japan (#7) who is two points behind them on four points, so it will decide the group leaders.

8. Japan (7)

Japan had a shock draw in the opening game against Argentina (#37), but they looked like the Japan we know – and ranked only one place behind the Matildas – in their second match against Scotland (#20). Suggestions are that they are more focussed on the 2020 Olympics tournament on home soil in Tokyo, and are using the World Cup as a warm-up. That may be so, but it's too early to write-off the former World and current Asian champions yet!

9. Sweden (9)

After seeing the USA (#1) defeat Thailand (#34) by a whopping 13-0, Sweden was probably expecting an easy win also but the much-improved Thais frustrated their game plan and 'held' them to 5-1 on Monday morning. They are through to the next stage after having also won their first game against Chile (#39), with the final group game against the mighty US expected to test them further.

10. Italy (15)

Those in the know before the tournament said Italy was “a good side” and their win against highly-fancied Australia (#6) and a robust 5-0 against Jamaica (#53) suggests that's a 'good' assessment. A win against Brazil (#10) – which would do Australia an enormous favour – will see them remain undefeated in the group stage, but Brazil is a team that won't go down without a fight.

11. Brazil (10)

Brazil entered the World Cup in poor form for them, but the opening win against Jamaica (#53) would have been a boost, as would the two goal lead against Australia (#6) until stoppage time in the first half of that match. Until Caitlin Foord's goal, and Marta coming off at half-time, it looked for all intents and purposes that Group C would 'belong' to Brazil but Australia's dramatic turnaround changed the landscape. We've read very little here about the impact that game would have had on Brazil as the losing side, especially with the winning goal awarded in controversial circumstances. If they can pick themselves up for the final game against Italy (#15), and if the legs of the world's best player Marta and Cristiane can last, no-one would ever write off Brazil!

12. Norway (12)

They won their first match comfortably against Nigeria (#38), and they almost pulled off a victory against home side France (#4), only losing to a controversial penalty decision. They meet South Korea (#14) in their final match and will need to win to secure progression to the second round, while South Korea will be desperate to ensure they don't leave France without a point. If Norway win, they are through as the second place-getter in their group; if they lose, they are still likely to make it as one of the higher-ranked number three teams.

13. Spain (13)

Spain came from behind to win their opening game against South Africa (#49), and looked lively enough against Germany (#2) but did not do enough to trouble the unflappable Germans. Their final game is against China (#16) who are equal with Spain on three points, and both teams will be desperate for a win to take them through to the second stage.

14. China (16)

With Australia, Japan and South Korea all ranked above them in Asia, China hasn't been thought about that much but they have probably performed above expectations. They had a narrow 1-0 loss to Germany (#2), followed by a similar scoreline win against South Africa (#49). They face Spain (#13) in the final first round match in what should be a cracker of a match at Le Havre in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

15. Nigeria (38)

With a win and a loss, Nigeria has given themselves a good chance of progressing. They lost against Norway (#12) but won against a so-far disappointing South Korea (#14), with hosts France (#4) to come in the final game. If so, it will be good to see an African team get through to the second stage considering they are given little encouragement or resources by most of their national football associations.

16. Argentina (37)

With a draw and a loss, Argentina are also still in with a chance of progressing if they can beat Scotland (#20) in the final round match. They were gutsy and determined in their 1-1 draw against Japan (#7) and they didn't make it easy for a much more fancied England (#4), so anything is possible.

17. New Zealand (19)

Even though they've lost two from two to Netherlands (#8) and Canada (#5), Tom Sermanni's side could still make the second round if they win against Cameroon (#46), with the other two teams in the group assured of progress, no matter the result of their game. The result of the New Zealand v Cameroon match is unpredictable. On paper, New Zealand should have no trouble overcoming the Africans, but Cameroon has the capacity to surprise.

18. Cameroon (46)

Like New Zealand (#19) with two losses from two games, Cameroon could possibly still make it to the next stage if they win the game against New Zealand. The chances are slim but they did well enough to draw level with the Netherlands (#8) before losing 3-1 and they held Canada to a 1-0 loss. They've played some eye-catching football at times and, like Nigeria, would benefit from the resources allocated by FIFA to African nations for women's football actually ending up with women's football.

19. Scotland (20)

Another team with two losses from two games in with a chance of progressing. They've played much higher ranked teams in their nemesis England (#4) and Japan (#7) so they might fancy themselves defeating Argentina (#37) and actually become the first Scottish team to stay in a World Cup country for more than two weeks.

20. South Korea (14)

They way they've been playing you'd hardly fathom they should be on this list. They lost to France (#4) 4-0 in the opening game, and Nigeria (#38) 2-0, but they will be desperate not to leave France without a point. A win against Norway (#12) could put them in with a slim chance of making it to the second round, however unlikely or even unfair that may seem.

The rest

Perhaps proving that rankings don't really get it that far wrong, the four teams we can't see progressing are the four lowest-ranked in the tournament:

1. Chile (#39) and Thailand (#34) from Group F who have had to face the USA (#1) and Sweden in their opening two matches. The final first-round match is one for pride.

2. Jamaica (#53) in Group C. Even if they pulled-off an incredible win against Australia (#6) and ended up with three points, their-8 goal difference in their two matches so far will ensure they can't progress.

3. South Africa (49) in Group B. They also sit with a -3 goal difference on 0 points and face Germany (#2) in the final first-round game.